Building the legislative opinion model
Clustering Census ACS representatives…

Twelve bills that don't exist. One synthetic Congress.

Nudge political alignment with interventions and watch a synthetic Congress — 10,000 Census-seeded voter profiles — decide whether each scenario would pass. Switch to State Scope to run the same scenarios through any state's legislature instead.

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These are illustrative bill scenarios modeled on real legislation archetypes, not actual pending legislation. Sponsors are political archetypes, not real people. Passage odds are model simulations, not predictions or forecasts.

US · Legislate · Illustrative · Federal
How this works
Congressional voting rules

House of Representatives: Requires a simple majority of 218 Yes votes to pass. Votes split proportionally based on state polarization and Census partisan leans.
Senate: Requires a supermajority of 60 Yes votes to overcome a filibuster, or a simple majority of 51 Yes votes — 50 plus the Vice President's tie-breaking vote also works — if reconciliation rules apply.

Political interventions

Shift voter opinions dynamically in real time:
Presidential Endorsement: Rallies the sponsor's party base but polarizes opposition.
Bipartisan Amendment: Lowers the Senate filibuster block to a simple majority (51 votes, or 50 plus the VP tiebreak).
Ad Campaign: Shifts moderate and independent Census demographics.

Projections & breakdowns

Voter Support: The percentage of the 10,000 synthetic voter profiles supporting the legislation.
State Explorer: Shows the state-level support margin, Senator delegation split, and House representative divisions.

Modeled 80-seat house / 40-seat senate — not your state's actual chamber sizes.

Illustrative Federal Bills

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Loading Bill...

Sponsor Chamber

Summary description of the legislation.

Legislative Passage Probabilities

House Vote (218 Yes to Pass) 0 Yes 0% Probability
Senate Vote (60 Filibuster / 51 Reconciliation) 0 Yes 0% Filibuster Pass

Nudge Legislative Support (Interventions)

Voter Support by Race

Voter Support by Education

Voter Support by Income

Voter Support by Age

Voter Support by Political Lean

State-by-State Support Explorer

State Voter Support Projected Senators Projected House Reps EV Weight